Airbnb vs Long-Term Rental ROI Calculator — Risk-Adjusted Net + Break-Even Occupancy
Drop your purchase price, STR nightly rate + occupancy + cleaning/management + insurance delta + wear, LTR monthly rent, property tax, regulatory risk score, and personal time. Calculator returns STR vs LTR risk-adjusted net annual income, the net hourly value of running STR over LTR, the break-even occupancy where STR matches LTR, cap rates for both, and the top three levers that would flip the decision — calibrated to AirDNA 2024 market data, BiggerPockets STR-vs-LTR field surveys, and NAR rental-property median yields.
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Airbnb vs Long-Term Rental Calculator
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What This Calculator Does
The Airbnb vs Long-Term Rental Calculator settles the single most-asked question in residential real-estate investing right now: should this property be an STR or an LTR — and by how much? Drop your purchase price, STR nightly rate, occupancy, cleaning + management cost, LTR monthly rent, property tax, regulatory risk score, and personal time. The calculator returns risk-adjusted STR vs LTR net annual income, the net hourly value of running STR over LTR (the number that flips most decisions), the break-even occupancy where STR matches LTR, cap rates for both, and the top-three levers that would change the answer.
Most STR-vs-LTR calculators online return only nominal cash flow — STR gross, LTR gross, take whichever is higher. That misses three things that actually drive the decision: regulatory risk haircut (a 7+/10 reg score routinely collapses STR economics on a city- council vote), personal-time hourly value (a 9% cap rate STR that takes 12 hrs/wk and yields $25/hr in time-cost is structurally worse than a 5.5% cap LTR with zero personal time), and break-even occupancy (the most actionable single number — compare to your market’s AirDNA median to see whether STR is feasible at all).
The Math — Risk-Adjusted Net + Break-Even Solve
Three layers compound. STR side starts with gross (nightly × 365 × occupancy), subtracts fixed operating costs (cleaning + management + wear-and-tear + property tax + STR-vs-LTR insurance delta), then applies a regulatory haircut on the net — 1.5% per risk point capped at 15% at score 10. The haircut captures expected revenue impairment from regulatory action (caps on nights/year, primary- residence rules, transient-occupancy taxes, licensing fees). LTR side is straightforward — gross rent × 12, minus 5% vacancy, minus property tax (which applies equally to both sides and effectively nets out of the comparison). Decision layeris the net delta plus the personal-time hourly value (delta ÷ STR personal hours/yr) plus the break-even occupancy where STR risk-adj net = LTR net. Break-even is the most actionable single number — compare it to your market’s AirDNA median.
The personal-time framing is what separates this calc from spreadsheet exercises. STR’s nominal premium often disappears when you divide by the hours it consumes. A $14K/yr STR-over-LTR premium at 12 hrs/wk comes out to $22/hr — barely above minimum wage in most metros. Compare against your alternative-use-of- time hourly rate (use the True Hourly Rate calc to nail this honestly): if your alternative use is worth more than the calc’s STR hourly value, LTR is the structurally better answer regardless of nominal cash flow.
A Worked Example — “Standard suburban 3-bedroom”
Suppose $450K purchase price, $5,400/yr property tax, $180/night STR rate, 65% occupancy, $600/mo cleaning + management, $150/mo wear-tear, $1,200/yr insurance delta, $2,800/mo LTR rent, reg risk 5/10, 8 hrs/wk personal time:
- STR gross: $180 × 365 × 65% = $42,705
- STR fixed: $7,200 cleaning + $1,800 wear + $5,400 tax + $1,200 ins delta = $15,600
- STR net before risk: $42,705 − $15,600 = $27,105
- STR risk-adjusted net (7.5% haircut): $27,105 × 0.925 = $25,072
- LTR gross: $2,800 × 12 = $33,600
- LTR net: $33,600 − $1,680 vacancy − $5,400 tax = $26,520
- Net delta: $25,072 − $26,520 = −$1,448/yr (LTR wins)
- Personal time: 8 × 52 = 416 hrs/yr
- STR hourly value: −$3.48/hr (LTR wins, no premium)
- Cap rates: STR 5.57% · LTR 5.89%
- Break-even STR occupancy: ~67% (current 65% is 2pp short)
- Top lever: increase occupancy 65% → 67% — would flip the decision toward STR
The verdict reads: “LTR wins by $1,448/yr — STR premium doesn’t cover the time + regulatory risk.” At 65% occupancy and current cost structure, this property pencils ~2 percentage points below break-even as an STR. The calc’s lever output points cleanly: raise occupancy 2pp via lower nightly rate or more channels, or convert to LTR and pocket the time. Most owners running this calc with default suburban inputs land here — STR’s nominal premium evaporates after the regulatory haircut and operating costs. The clean STR wins are concentrated in markets where occupancy is structurally higher (75%+) or nightly rates are structurally elevated (resort, beach, mountain).
When This Is Useful
Six high-value moments. Pre-purchase underwriting.Run before making an offer — many properties marketed as STR- ready don’t pencil after the regulatory haircut + realistic operating costs are subtracted. The calc is the cleanest filter for ‘which deals actually pencil.’ STR-vs-LTR conversion decision.If you’re running an existing STR and considering converting to LTR, run the calc with current operating numbers + realistic LTR rent. Many existing STRs are sub-break-even but operators don’t see it because they don’t price the personal time. Regulatory-risk reassessment. Whenever your city signals new STR regulations (proposed ordinances, tax-rate changes, licensing requirements), bump the reg score and rerun. The 15% max haircut is the expected-value framing; outright bans collapse STR economics entirely. Property-management hire decision. Run twice — current personal time vs. 0 hrs with full-service mgmt at +20-25% of revenue. The math often shows the mgmt company eats the spread, but sometimes the time savings pay for themselves. Break-even occupancy stress test. Compare break-even output against AirDNA market median — if your break-even is at the 75th percentile of market occupancy, STR is structurally a stretch even with operational excellence. Hybrid mid-term-rental evaluation. For 30-day-minimum hybrid (corporate housing, traveling nurse, snowbird), run the LTR side with MTR rates (10-30% premium over standard LTR) and adjusted vacancy (8-12%). Hybrid is often optimal at reg score 6-7.
Common Mistakes
- Using national-average occupancy as your underwriting case. AirDNA median is 55-65% nationally, but your specific market can deviate ±20%. Pull market- specific data (AirDNA market reports for your zip, comp active listings) and use median of YOUR market, not the national headline. Rural / seasonal properties often hit 35-45%; A-class urban with year-round demand can sustain 75-85%.
- Pricing off peak-season-only nightly rate. Seasonal markets have 80-95% occupancy 4-5 peak months and 15-25% in shoulder seasons. Use the trailing-12-month blended ADR, not the summer-only number that listing brokers will quote. The blended rate often runs 25-40% lower than the peak rate.
- Skipping the regulatory haircut. STR investors over-leverage by relying on nominal yield without adjusting for regulatory risk. NYC, Honolulu, Santa Monica, and Barcelona enacted near- total bans in 1-3 years. The 1.5% per point haircut is the expected-value framing — outright bans collapse economics entirely. Run with risk score honestly assessed; ask your local STR association chapter for current reg-watch status.
- Under-counting personal time. National average for self-managed STRs is 8-15 hrs/wk. If you’re estimating 5 hrs/wk you’re probably under-counting (forgetting calendar mgmt, supply runs, and review responses). Track for two weeks if already operating, or use the time-by-stay-length anchors (45 min/turnover short stays, 25 min medium, 15 min long, plus 2-3 hrs/wk overhead).
- Forgetting STR insurance delta. Most standard landlord policies exclude commercial- rental activity. STR requires specialized carrier (Proper, CBIZ, Steadily) at 30-60% premium. Default $1,200/yr delta is for a 3-bedroom; high-end coastal or mountain properties hit $2,500-4,000.
- Treating cap rate and hourly value as the same number. Cap rate is the property’s yield as an investment; hourly value is what your time is buying. A 9% cap rate STR that requires 12 hrs/wk and yields $25/hr personal-time value is structurally worse for a $200K/yr software engineer than a 5.5% cap rate LTR with zero personal time. The calc surfaces both because they answer different questions.
- Skipping comparison against your alternative use of time. Run the True Hourly Rate calc to find your honest alternative-use hourly rate (factor in commute, work expenses). If it’s $80 and STR’s hourly value is $25, STR is structurally a worse use of your hours regardless of nominal yield. The time math doesn’t care that the dollar math looks attractive.
Related Calculators
Same property type, different operating model — pair with the Property Flip ROI Calculator to see whether holding for rental yields better than flipping. Many deals look better as flips on paper but have lower IRR than long-hold STR or LTR. Before buying any rental, run the House Affordability Calculator (Beyond DTI) with realistic single-home affordability assumptions — most STR investors over-leverage by relying on STR’s nominal yield without adjusting for the regulatory haircut this calc applies. Pair with the Investment ROI Calculator to compare rental net yield (this calc’s cap rates) against plain-vanilla index alternatives — if STR cap is 6% but your S&P 500 alternative is 7%, the rental needs to win on appreciation + leverage to be a defensible allocation. And the most important cross-link for this calc: run the True Hourly Rate Calculator to find your alternative-use-of-time hourly rate and compare to STR’s ‘net hourly value of premium.’ If your true hourly is $80 and STR’s is $25, STR is structurally a worse use of your hours regardless of nominal yield.
Frequently Asked Questions
The most common questions we get about this calculator — each answer is kept under 60 words so you can scan.
How does the regulatory risk score actually affect the math?
Linearly: each point applies a 1.5% haircut on STR net, capping at 15% at score 10. Regulatory environments don’t collapse instantly to zero, but they trend toward restrictions over years. A score of 5 (mixed) implies 7.5% expected impairment over the underwriting horizon (caps on nights/year, primary-residence requirements, transient-occupancy taxes, licensing fees). A score of 8-10 (active crackdown like NYC, Honolulu, Santa Monica) implies 12-15%, often making LTR the structural answer. The 15% cap is expected-value, not worst-case (outright bans collapse STR economics entirely).Why does the calc separate ‘net hourly value’ from cap rate?
Because they answer different questions. Cap rate (NOI divided by purchase price x 100) tells you the property’s yield, useful for ranking properties or comparing alternative real-estate plays. Net hourly value of the STR premium tells you whether the time you’re putting into running STR is worth it vs your alternative use. A 9% cap rate STR requiring 12 hrs/wk and yielding $25/hr personal time is structurally worse for a $200K/yr software engineer than a 5.5% cap rate LTR with zero personal time, even though cap rate alone says STR wins.What does the break-even occupancy actually mean?
The STR occupancy at which risk-adjusted STR net exactly equals LTR net. Below: LTR wins; above: STR wins. The most actionable single number in the result: compare directly against AirDNA median occupancy for your market. If market median is 55% and break-even is 72%, STR is a stretch (you need top-quartile operation just to match LTR). If median is 65% and break-even is 50%, STR is a comfortable win. Break-even can come back as ‘unreachable’ when STR fixed costs consume the entire spread, the cleanest signal LTR is the structural answer.How accurate is the AirDNA / BiggerPockets-anchored modeling?
Default ranges (55-65% national median occupancy, $80-150/clean, 20-25% mgmt fees, 1.5% per reg-risk point) are calibrated to AirDNA 2024 quarterly reports + BiggerPockets STR-vs-LTR field surveys + NAR rental-property data. Your specific market can deviate plus or minus 20% from any of these; anchor against AirDNA market reports for your zip, comp active listings, and survey local property managers for fee structures. The calc is designed to be deliberate-input: every number you enter should reflect your market or operational plan, not the defaults.Is the 5% vacancy assumption on LTR realistic?
Median for stable markets — yes. Soft markets (rural single-family with limited renter pool, high-end A-class with longer turnover cycles) often hit 8-10%. Tight markets (urban A-class with year-long waitlists) can run 2-3%. The 5% is the industry-default modal assumption per BiggerPockets and PropertyShark data. If your specific market is materially different, treat the LTR net line as 95-92% of gross instead of 95% — the math is straightforward to override mentally; the calc uses the standard.Why is STR insurance so much higher than LTR?
Three reasons. Higher liability exposure: guests are transient, less invested in property care, statistically more likely to trigger slip-and-fall or party-related claims. Commercial-use endorsement: most standard landlord policies exclude commercial-rental activity, and STR is classified commercial; you need a specialized STR-friendly carrier (Proper, CBIZ, Steadily) at 30-60% premium. Shorter-occupancy clauses: STR policies require coverage even with stays under 30 days, which most LTR carriers explicitly exclude. The default $1,200/yr delta is typical for a 3BR STR vs LTR-equivalent.How do I think about the personal-time input honestly?
Track it for two weeks if you’re already operating. Otherwise estimate by stay length: short stays (1-3 nights) consume ~45 min per turnover (cleaning coordination, key handoff, message volume); medium stays (4-7 nights) ~25 min (less frequent turnovers offset higher per-stay messaging); long stays (8+ nights) ~15 min. Add a flat 2-3 hrs/wk for calendar management, review responses, supply restocking. National benchmark for self-managed STRs is 8-15 hrs/wk; 5 hrs/wk is probably under-counting; 25 hrs/wk means you’re running it like a small business and should hire a co-host.What about appreciation, leverage, and tax advantages?
Out of scope for this calc by design. The calc compares operating cash flow only, the apples-to-apples question for ‘same property, two operating models.’ Appreciation hits both STR and LTR equally (same property either way). Leverage amplifies both yields equally. Tax treatment differs slightly: STR can qualify for material-participation status (Schedule E vs Schedule C) which affects loss deductibility, but operating-cash-flow comparison is the same. For a full property-investment underwriting model with appreciation, leverage, and tax, layer this calc’s output into a separate IRR analysis.What if STR is seasonal-heavy in my market?
Use the trailing-12-month blended rate and occupancy, not peak-only. Seasonal markets (mountain ski towns, beach rentals, ski-resort-adjacent suburbs) often have 80-95% occupancy in 4-5 peak months and 15-25% in shoulder seasons — the blended annual is often 45-55%, well below the AirDNA national median. The calc’s STR side runs on annual numbers; surfacing seasonality separately is out of scope. If your market is materially seasonal, run two scenarios: one with peak-only nightly rate and 90% occupancy (overstating STR), one with annual-blend (realistic). The realistic scenario is the underwriting case; the peak-only is the marketing pitch you’ll see from listing brokers.How does this compare to running my own spreadsheet?
The math is identical to a competent investor spreadsheet: gross revenue, fixed costs, vacancy/occupancy, regulatory adjustment, cap rates. What this calc adds: a structured break-even occupancy solve (most spreadsheets don’t auto-solve this), a personal-time hourly value framing (most ignore it entirely), and conditional levers pointing to which lever flips the decision. The headline summary is tuned for operationally-actionable answers (‘net hourly value $52 borderline’ vs ‘STR nets $34K/yr’). If you’re already running this in a spreadsheet, the value is the framing layer.When should I just go LTR regardless of what the calc says?
Five clean cases. Reg risk score 8+: regulatory environment signaling crackdown; STR economics can collapse on a city-council vote. STR personal time over 15 hrs/wk and your alternative-use-of-time hourly rate over $50: time math doesn’t work even if dollar math does. STR break-even occupancy above your market’s 75th percentile: top-quartile operation needed just to match LTR. Property is a primary residence and you’d displace yourself. You’re using leverage and the lender requires LTR-only on loan covenants.What about hybrid mid-term rental (30-day minimum stays)?
Hybrid MTR (corporate housing, traveling nurse, snowbird, divorced-spouse) often lives between STR and LTR economically. Higher rents than LTR (10-30% premium), much lower turnover than STR (1-2 turnovers/yr vs 30-50/yr), still requires furnished property + utilities + cleaning. Reg-friendly in most jurisdictions because 30-day-minimum exempts most STR ordinances. Run the calc twice: once with MTR rates as the LTR side (with adjusted vacancy 8-12% reflecting longer search cycles), once with full STR. Hybrid is often the optimal answer in mid-reg-risk markets (score 6-7) where pure STR is too risky but pure LTR leaves yield on the table.